The NATO Summit - A 'great opportunity' for Newport?

When Prime Minister David Cameron announced on October 31st 2013 that the NATO Summit would be held at the Celtic Manor Resort, several people were injured in the stampede as local political figures rushed to gush about what a fantastic opportunity this was for the city.

Like the Ryder Cup, the NATO summit would not only 'put Newport (Wales) on the map', but would present a wonderful opportunity for the city to show off its potential to a world that presumably is desperately searching for another small port city. And with thousands of journalists and delegates following the world leaders, this would also supposedly be a boom time for local businesses.

If only life were that easy.

So here we are, eight months later and within the final 100 day countdown to the Summit. How are we shaping up to take advantage of this wonderful and much hailed 'opportunity'? Pretty poorly it would seem. The rose tinted glasses have been removed and the reality of the event is starting to sink in. This isn't going to be an easy event. The NATO Summit is a logistical challenge of immense proportions that will not only cause significant inconvenience, but will come with a significant bill.

The first initial bill for the 2012 Summit in Chicago put the cost of just policing and fire services at $16m. Add to this the largely unmeasured costs associated with cleaning up after the army of protesters and the disruption to business. In May, Assistant Chief Constable Chris Armitt warned the security operation will be a bigger challenge than the London 2012 Olympics. You remember the fuss about security for the Olympics? Anti-aircraft missiles on tower blocks and navy ships harboured in the Thames?

Today the South Wales Argus reports that 'more than 50 schools across Newport could close when the Nato summit begins at the Celtic Manor Resort', the issue being the amount of travel disruption caused by the Summit. Presumably this will mean several thousand working parents needing to use up holiday entitlement so they can stay at home with their children - if they can get it.

Other disruption is becoming apparent, including a new announcement from Newport County AFC warning that fixtures will be moved and the club office, shop and ticket office likely affected as well.

We've already started to hear rumours about police snipers on bridges, random spot checks of vehicles, closed roads and other disruption, and of course the anti-Summit protesters have been very open about their intentions.

So we're getting plenty in about the cost, inconvenience and disruption, but still not one solid idea about how the 'opportunity' will be taken advantage of. Indeed, this has emerged as a point of argument, with local politicians both in Newport and Cardiff bickering and playing the blame game about how no game plan or strategy has emerged. It would seem to our political class, that identifying the Summit as 'an opportunity' is enough in itself.

Ironically, it's the Celtic Manor Resort that has been the most outspoken about this. During May, Celtic Manor bosses voiced their concerns about how 'NATO benefits could be missed.' They were of course spot on, but it's easy to suspect that the statement was ultimately about reputational self-preservation. The Celtic Manor Resort was (rightly or wrongly) criticised following the Ryder Cup when that particular 'opportunity' failed to deliver any obvious benefits to Newport. By voicing their concerns in advance of NATO, they can legitimately holds their hands up after the event and say 'Not our fault. You were warned.'

First Minister Carwyn Jones immediately responded to the Celtic Manor by saying 'Welsh and UK ministers are constantly discussing events they want to hold around the Nato summit in Newport.' With less than 100 days, I don't think we can expect too much from these discussions.

And what about Newport Council? Remember, it was our councillors who were first to rush en masse to announce what a great opportunity NATO presented. Surely they haven't been sitting on their hands?

Unfortunately, it would appear they have (quelle surprise). Council Leader Bob Bright was quoted in The South Wales Argus as late as 9th June as saying, “Officers have been tasked with researching the economic benefits/promotional opportunities of other Nato summits held in major cities elsewhere and with producing an associated PR and marketing strategy that will guide the authority’s promotional activities between now and the summit in September." With less than three months to go, this is far too late in the day to be doing research. Actual plans should already be well developed. Remember, the basic premise has always been about promoting Newport TO THE WORLD. You can't do that in the last week or even the last month before the Summit. It should be happening NOW! In the second great irony, it has been the protesters who have pounced quickest to spread the news of the NATO Summit in Newport.

The third great irony is; that it will be the protesters themselves that offer the greatest opportunity, certainly for local businesses. The world leaders and their assembled entourage won't be spending their hard earned pennies in shops, pubs and restaurants, and most of the attendant media cloud will no doubt camp in Cardiff. The only people guaranteed to descend on Newport itself will be the protesters. They won't be allowed anywhere near the Celtic Manor, so Newport city centre will be where they do their thing, and they will all need to be fed, watered and accommodated. There have already been protest events in the city, so they've started to drip money into the local economy. Of course any money brought in needs to be offset against the cost of policing the protesters, but still, some local business will certainly benefit.

So what is this blog really about? Quite simply, it's about the speed and tedious predictability with which local politicians rush to issue knee-jerk sound bytes without thinking first or without doing basic research to back up their statements. And it's not just politicians. Several local businesses also rushed to gush about how wonderful the NATO Summit would be for Newport. It remains to be seen what actually happens between now and the day NATO rolls out of Newport, but it's my bet that the Summit will deliver little in the way of actual benefit and instead carries a sizable financial and social cost for the city.

Once it's all over and the dust has settled, it will be worth revisiting some of the people who rushed to gush about 'opportunity' and ask where they think they got it wrong. If the Summit goes well and delivers great benefit for Newport, I will, as a cynic from the start, hold my hands up and say I got it wrong. But at least I will have based my prediction on basic research of previous events. Can the politicians say the same?